Illini and Badgers square off in Big Ten brawl

NCAA Basketball Betting Lines

02/09/2010 - Madison, WI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Illinois Fighting Illini carry a four-game win streak into tonight's Big Ten Conference battle with the 11th-ranked Wisconsin Badgers, who are tough to beat in Madison.

Illinois has quietly gotten itself into position to contend for the Big Ten title with its recent winning streak, as the club is 8-3 in league play. The Illini, who are 16-8 overall, knocked off Michigan State on Saturday by a 78-73 final, avenging a five-point loss to the Spartans last month. All but one of the club's eight losses this season have come by 10 or fewer points, proof that Illinois has been competitive even in defeat.

Like Illinois, Wisconsin is 8-3 in conference action thanks to wins in four of its last five contests. The Badgers defeated Michigan on Saturday by a 62-44 final to move to 18-5 overall, and they carry a 13-0 home record into this evening's affair.

Illinois owns a 107-74 series advantage over Wisconsin, but the Badgers have won six of the last seven meetings.

The Illini have achieved strong offensive balance thanks to the contributions of four double-digit scorers. Demetri McCamey leads the way with 15.4 ppg, and he has dished out 153 assists against 76 turnovers. Mike Tisdale provides 11.7 ppg on 57.6 percent shooting, and D.J. Richardson provides 11.2 ppg. As for Mike Davis, he rounds out the foursome with 10.7 ppg and 8.5 rpg. Illinois is posting 74.2 ppg through 24 games, while opponents are netting 67.0 ppg against the team. McCamey shot 6-of-9 from three-point range and finished with 22 points against Michigan State last time out, and Richardson added 14 points. The Illini shot 52.5 percent from the field and committed only 10 turnovers, eight fewer than the Spartans. Those positives enabled the Illini to overcome a 34-24 rebounding deficit.

Trevon Hughes is netting 15.5 ppg this season for Wisconsin, which is scoring 67.8 ppg while limiting opponents to 56.2 ppg on 41.0 percent field goal efficiency. Jason Bohannon checks in with 11.1 ppg, and Jordan Taylor adds 10.0 ppg. Against Michigan over the weekend, Wisconsin connected on 53.7 percent of its field goal attempts, including a 11-of-21 effort from three- point range. The Badgers also earned a 29-19 rebounding advantage and played tremendous team defense in the second half. Bohannon tallied 18 points in that contest, and he handed out five assists. Hughes pitched in 14 points, and Jordan Taylor finished with 13.

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Numerous College Basketball teams take final big step to March Madness betting

So, what turned on the lock spigot? Well, after what felt like weeks of teams treading water and slipping back into the bubble muck, a bunch of them finally decided to say "to heck with parity" and won games that should put them into the Big Dance.

Disagree with some of these? Then here's the challenge. Take all of the "should be ins" and make a legit case that each should be ahead of the team that's a lock. Then find 10 more teams that also should be placed in the bracket ahead of that lock team. Not so easy, is it?

If you want more evidence that these locks should be good to go, check out what our research department dug up. Since the NCAA Tournament went to 64 teams in 1985, only six teams from a "big six" conference have had a record of 10-6 or better in conference play and not been selected: Colorado (2004) and Nebraska (1999) from the Big 12, Boston College and Seton Hall (both 2003) from the Big East, Indiana (2005) from the Big Ten and UCLA, which somehow went 12-6 in the Pac-10 in 1988 and still missed out. (Note: Five teams went 11-7 and didn't get in, the latest being last season's Stanford team, which had a brutal nonconference run.)

Yes, 10 conference wins doesn't always mean what it used to because of unbalanced schedules, but this season, it should be plenty good in all but the extreme cases (see: Iowa).

In a way, this is a welcome development, because this is a bubble watch, not a lock watch. We can finally be done with teams like Maryland and Virginia Tech and start really bearing down on at-large battles such as Syracuse-West Virginia and Appalachian State-Georgia Tech.

Interestingly, all the shifting of teams into lock status appears to be more administrative than impactful. The number of remaining available at-larges didn't change one iota. The only difference is that teams on the bubble now have a clearer idea of which team(s) they are competing with for those precious bids.

The Bubble Breakdown
CONFERENCE LOCKS SHOULD BE INS AT-LARGES TAKEN
(assuming no auto bid outlier)
ACC Betting Odds 6 0 5
Big East Betting Odds 5 0 4
Big Ten Betting Odds 2 2 3
Big 12 Betting Odds 3 0 2
Pac-10 Betting Odds 5 1 5
SEC Betting Odds 4 0 3
MVC Betting Odds 1 1 1
MWC Betting Odds 2 1 2
TOTAL 28 5 25

As always, I've tried to be as inclusive as possible while only including teams that would have a reasonable chance of at least being discussed if this were Selection Sunday. If your team's not on here, there's probably a good reason (or three) -- start with the RPI and SOS numbers and work your way down.

(Please remember, per selection committee criteria, that records displayed are Division I only. Next update: Feb. 28)

If you have a legitimate grievance, or just like talking bubble, send an e-mail. Polite ones with fact-based arguments have a much better chance of receiving a response. I apologize in advance if I can't get back to all of you.

Atlantic Coast Conference

Work left to do: Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech

The ACC moves to six locks as BC, Va Tech and Virginia all got their 10th ACC wins, which should be more than enough this season, and Maryland rallied past North Carolina to get the final piece the Terps needed. After that? It could end there unless FSU, Ga Tech or Clemson picks things up in a hurry.

 

Work left to do:

Clemson [19-9 (5-9), RPI: 41, SOS: 42] The Tigers are closer to locking up the collapse of the year award (in a good battle with OK State) than they are to grabbing an at-large. Clemson's been very competitive, but there's no really positive way you can spin nine losses in 11 games. They now cannot get to .500 in ACC play and still must head to Virginia Tech in the season finale (after hosting Miami). Unless the Tigers win both and/or do some serious work in the ACC tourney, they very well could be left out. There are no great nonconference wins, but ODU, App State, Miss. State, South Carolina and Georgia are all respectable W's.

Florida State [18-11 (6-9), RPI: 48, SOS: 14] The Noles got thrashed at Maryland to run their losing streak to five, but then pounded NC State at home to set the table for what likely is an elimination game at Miami. You can at least make a case for the Seminoles at 7-9 in ACC play (and some work in the ACC tourney), but 6-10 is not going to cut it. Wins at Duke and over Florida will resonate, but the computer numbers remain questionable. Beyond Florida, FSU thrashed bubble buddy Providence, but there's not a ton beyond those two games that will help. They didn't show well in big-time opportunities against Pitt and Wisconsin (before the Florida win).

Georgia Tech [18-10 (6-8), RPI: 51, SOS: 46] The Jackets beat Wake on Wednesday but couldn't get it done at UVa on Saturday, which could be a crucial loss with UNC and BC (both at home) remaining and 8-8 almost a certain need for at-large consideration. A nonconference win over Memphis helps, but the RPI and SOS are not at-large quality right now; if you combine those with a sub-.500 ACC mark, that could spell NIT for GT.

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Dallas Cowboys Super Bowl Odds

Will he or won't he?  Now that the Dallas Cowboys have a new head coach in Wade Phillips, the big question will be: Does Terrell Owens stay with the team.

Jerry Jones continues to suggest that Terrell Owens will remain with the team.

"I've said that he's back, he's here, he's under contract," Jones said. "In the interviews I've just been through (to hire a new coach), it was very clear to me how highly he's thought of and how much of an impact he had on our offensive success."

Just to be sure though, Terrell Owens cleared out his locker and removed his name plate.

Terrell Owens was among the Cowboys most productive players this past season, catching 85 passes for 1,180 yards and a league-best 13 touchdowns.

But T.O. is due a $3 million roster bonus in June, then a $5 million salary this season. Cutting him before then would save a lot of money and headaches.

Aside from the questions surrounding Terrell Owens, the oddsmakers at MySportsbook.com have concerns over starting quarterback Tony Romo's state of mind and whether he will remain a starting quarterback.  It is also not known how players will adjust to new head coach, Wade Phillips.

Here are the football odds as seen at MySportsbook.com and subject to change after February 10, 2007 if not locked in prior to that date.
Arizona Cardinals 60-1


Atlanta Falcons 50-1


Baltimore Ravens 15-1


Buffalo Bills 50-1


Carolina Panthers 18-1


Chicago Bears 10-1


Cincinnati Bengals 15-1


Cleveland Browns 100-1


Dallas Cowboys 15-1


Denver Broncos 15-1


Detroit Lions 100-1


Green Bay Packers 50-1


Houston Texans 100-1


Indianapolis Colts 6-1


Jacksonville Jaguars 30-1


Kansas City Chiefs 30-1


Miami Dolphins 40-1


Minnesota Vikings 75-1


New England Patriots 10-1


New Orleans Saints 18-1


New York Giants 20-1


New York Jets 30-1


Oakland Raiders 100-1


Philadelphia Eagles 18-1


Pittsburgh Steelers 10-1


Saint Louis Rams 60-1


San Diego Chargers 6-1


San Francisco 49ers 75-1


Seattle Seahawks 20-1


Tampa Bay Buccanneers 75-1


Tennessee Titans 40-1


Washington Redskins 50-1

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